Turn a decision into a plan you can hand over

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Ambition check:
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• Depth: A strong operator would write the trigger as numbers, a date and a named decider, signed off by Ravi, Jen and Mei before launch. The decision date has to sit well before the contract ends. …
• Range: The plan has to measure, decide and exit. …
  • One way to break the plan: demand ramps slowly and the trigger isn't reached by month 12. The plan needs a renew-or-extend option rather than a cliff.
• Verification: Jen checks the breakeven maths. The provider's data is checked against your own order records. Someone outside the three of them, such as an advisor or board member, tries to knock holes in the trigger before it's signed.
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  Questions before I outline it:

1. What should the trigger depend on? I'd use three numbers, all held for three months in a row:

   • monthly volume at or above the breakeven Jen calculates
   • an on-time delivery floor
   • the region's margin after the provider's costs

   Volume alone can hide a bad customer experience or a thin margin. Does that match what you had in mind, or is it volume only?

2. How long does it take you to lease and open a warehouse, and what notice period would the provider contract need? …

3. Who makes the final call on the decision date? …

… The five-month build is what sets the deadline.

What the dates mean (contract runs January to December 2027):

• For your own warehouse to be taking deliveries when the contract ends in December, you have to decide by the end of July 2027.
• The provider's three months' notice would be due by the end of September, so it isn't the binding date.
• The first three months (January to March) are ramp-up and shouldn't count toward the trigger. The first three-month stretch you can fairly judge is April to June, with the numbers ready in early July. That leaves about three weeks before the end-of-July deadline: effectively one shot, no second look.
• If the build slips, you'd have a gap after December unless the provider agrees to carry on month to month. I'd make that a contract term.
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  Does this structure look right? …

Done. The review now sits at the end of June, with July kept as a second look. …
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Phase 1: Set the trigger (Nov to Dec 2026)

• Baseline cost to serve from the two current warehouses: Jen
• Breakeven model: own-warehouse cost per case delivered vs the provider's, at low, mid and high demand; sets the volume threshold: Jen, about 2 weeks
• On-time delivery floor: Ravi
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• Outside reviewer challenges the trigger before sign-off: you choose the reviewer
• Sign the trigger before the contract is signed: you
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Phase 5: Decide (end of June to July 2027)

• Main review, last week of June (month 6): Jen presents April, May and June to date; Ravi and Mei respond; you decide build, extend or exit
• Clear pass: start the build straight away, don't wait for July
• Borderline: second look in July on final June plus July to date, applying the borderline rule
• Hard deadline: 31 July 2027
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• Build slips past December: month-to-month extension
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