Make the big call with a clearer head

Situation: Sam runs Northfield Supply, a food and household goods distributor. A new region needs serving: build a third warehouse, or hand it to a logistics provider?

Example conversation with a made-up company.

Run it past the board. I need to decide whether to open a third warehouse so we can serve a new region, or hand that region's deliveries to a logistics provider. The warehouse costs about a year's profit up front. The provider costs more per case but needs no capital. My dad, who ran the business before me, thinks the warehouse is the safe bet. …

TigerTiger › think

Loaded skill: Advisory Board

…
The Operator
Position: Conditional Support
Key concern: A third site needs its own manager and routines, and you have two sites to run already.
…
The Growth Skeptic
Position: Oppose
Key concern: Nothing you've said shows the new region's demand exists yet, and the warehouse is a bet on that demand.
…
The Finance Partner
Position: Oppose (as stated, now)
Key concern: Spending a year's profit up front leaves you thin if the region ramps slowly, and the provider's extra cost per case may be much smaller than the warehouse's fixed costs.
…
The Client Advocate
Position: Conditional Support
Key concern: In food distribution, late or damaged deliveries lose customers fast, and a third party now owns that experience.
…
The Founder
Position: Conditional Support
…
Nobody opposes the warehouse as an end state. The disagreement is about timing and proof.
…
Recommended action: Proceed with conditions. Start the region with the logistics provider, on a contract short enough to leave. Use it to measure real volume and service quality. Set the warehouse trigger in advance: a monthly volume level, sustained for a set number of months, where the warehouse is cheaper. Then build it.
…
The question we're not asking: What would you need to see in the first six months to say the region is worth a permanent site?
…
The warehouse can be built later. It can't be unbuilt.

… We're going provider first, on a 12-month contract we can leave, and we'll set the warehouse trigger up front.

What changed: A clear next step. Start with the provider on a contract Sam can leave, and agree up front what would make a warehouse worth building.

Try it: Sam typed "Run it past the board." (skill: advisory-board)

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