See the knock-on effects

Situation: Sam wants to see what using a logistics provider for the new region leads to three to five years out, beyond cost.

Example conversation with a made-up company.

Three orders this. We've decided to serve a new region through a logistics provider on a 12-month contract, instead of opening our own third warehouse now. If the region's volume gets big enough we'll build the warehouse later. … My dad ran the business before me and wanted the warehouse.

TigerTiger › think

Loaded skill: Three Orders

Step 1 of 5: the decision and the obvious move.
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Path A (the default move): Use the provider to deliver to the new region, keep the cost variable, and watch the volume. …
I'll flag one thing before we go on. Path A is judged only on cost and coverage. Nothing in it measures what the region teaches you about its customers, and steps 3 and 4 will dig into that. …

Continue.

Step 3 of 5: the second-order consequences. These are how other people react once Path A is running: the provider, your competitors, your own people.

The provider ends up knowing your new region better than you do. Over 12 months they learn the routes, the customers and the real cost to serve. …
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Opportunity B, the demand signal: the orders and requests the provider setup can't handle. Every region customer who asks for something your current setup can't deliver is telling you what a warehouse there would need to be. … but it only counts if someone is recording it. Right now nothing in Path A does. …

Continue. And yes, my dad still thinks we're being timid.

First, what you just told me confirms the pressure I flagged in step 3. Your dad calls this timid, so the warehouse decision will be judged against his view. That makes the evidence you collect in the first year matter more, because it's what you'll use to settle that argument. …

Continue.

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The hidden assumption under the whole decision: that volume is the right test for building. Volume tells you how much the region buys. It doesn't tell you what kind of operation it needs, or whether serving it pays.
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Recommendation: Take Path B. Two conditions: you can get the order and customer detail from the provider or capture it at order entry, and you and your dad agree the build-or-rent numbers before the contract starts. …
A question you can reuse: "What is this setup telling us customers want that it can't give them?"

What changed: The 12-month provider contract becomes a chance to learn what customers in the new region need. Before signing, Sam has one question to settle: who records what those customers ask for, and the orders he loses?

Try it: Sam typed "Three orders this." (skill: three-orders)

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