Find out how it fails, before it does
Situation: Before signing the 12-month logistics contract, Sam wants to know how his rollout plan could go wrong.
Example conversation with a made-up company.
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It's the end of next year. The provider contract has run its 12 months, and the plan has failed. Either you built a warehouse you shouldn't have, or you didn't build one you needed and the region went without service, or you ended up locked to the provider on its terms. We're looking back to work out why.
Why it died: six reasons, each grounded in your plan
- Five months of data didn't answer the question. Months 1 to 5 of a new region are the ramp-up. …
- The timeline had no slack, and every step in it was soft. Build takes 5 months from decision, so a month 6 decision gives first delivery in month 11. That leaves one month of margin. …
- The way out was never secured. …
- The trigger measured only cost per case and volume. Late deliveries, damaged goods and customers quietly ordering less in the region never showed up. …
- The same few people set, measured and judged the yardstick. …
- Nobody owned getting volume in the new region. …
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The most likely failure: Reason 1. The review is built around a single moment where the numbers have to speak clearly, and a new region's first five months are the least likely to do that. A blurry result is the normal case, and the plan has no rule for it.
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In short: the most likely failure is a blurry month 6 result with no rule for it. The hidden assumption is that the numbers will be clear and on time. If you change one thing, make the extension a condition of signing and move the review to month 5, so a slip doesn't become a service gap.
What changed: The likeliest failure turns out to be a blurry month 6 result with no rule for what to do next. Sam gets one change to make before he signs.
Try it: Sam typed "Premortem this before I sign the contract." (skill: premortem)